How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

国际研发合作对 全球价值链分工地位的影响 ——基于吸收能力的门槛效应

基于知识吸收能力的视角，从理论和实证上考察国际研发合作对全球价值链分工地位攀升的作用及其门槛变量的影响。研究结果表明：在控制其他变量的基础上，国际研发合作能够显著地促进全球价值链分工地位攀升。进一步地，国际研发合作对全球价值链分工地位的影响还要受到经济体吸收能力的影响，要素禀赋、金融发展、人力资本、研发能力及制度环境等吸收能力分项维度对国际研发合作与全球价值链分工地位之间的关系具有显著的门槛调节效应。在全球研发网络和全球产业价值链加速融合的背景下，研究结论对中国企业通过选择国际合作研发策略、嵌入全球研发创新网络、强化知识吸收能力以进一步提升企业国际竞争力具有重要的启示意义。     

生产性服务业集聚与全球价值链地位攀升

结合中国工业企业数据和城市经济数据，运用工具变量回归从专业化和多样化层面探讨中国生产性服务业集聚对制造业全球价值链地位的影响。研究发现，从整体上看，不论是专业化还是多样化，生产性服务业集聚均能够显著提升中国制造业的全球价值链地位。分样本检验显示，生产性服务业集聚对全球价值链地位的提升作用主要存在于沿海省份、资本和技术密集型行业以及中小企业。在作用机制方面，生产性服务业专业化集聚主要通过提高创新水平和推动全要素生产率促进全球价值链地位的提升，而多样化集聚则通过加快要素流动和推动全要素生产率来提升全球价值链地位。     

Tariffs and formation of free trade agreements networks

This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) on the basis of country heterogeneity in the tariff level. We demonstrate that a country's unilateral incentive to form an FTA depends on the relative magnitudes of the (negative) market concession effect and the (positive) market expansion effect, both of which are determined by the tariff levels of the two FTA partner countries. Global welfare is maximised when all country pairs form FTAs. Two countries in equilibrium are more likely to form an FTA when their tariff gap is smaller or when their tariff levels are neither very high nor very low. This finding is robust to several extensions of the model. Our preliminary empirical analysis provides some evidence for the finding.     

How and when do prior international experiences lead to global work? A career motivation perspective

While research suggests a link between individuals' prior international experiences and their future participation in global work, we know little about how and the conditions under which this relationship occurs. Drawing on career motivation theory, we conceptualize global identity as a mediator between individuals' density of prior international experiences—defined as the extent to which time spent in culturally novel countries has provided individuals with developmental opportunities—and their global work aspirations, which in turn leads to their global work involvement. Further, this multi-stage mediation model holds mainly when individuals receive positive feedback regarding their intercultural competencies (i.e., cultural intelligence) from their peers. We test our model using a multi-wave multi-source dataset spanning 6 years. We discuss implications for the literatures on prior international experiences and global careers.     

Ronald Jones's duality analysis as a foundation for applied general‐equilibrium modeling

Ronald Jones made seminal contributions to general‐equilibrium theory, moving away from an emphasis on the existence of equilibrium to algebraic formulations which enabled us to characterize key relationships between parameters and variables, such as that between tariffs and domestic factor prices and welfare. But the analysis remained limited in value for policy evaluation: the analysis was local, it provided only qualitative results, it was limited to very small models, and strictly interior solutions had to be assumed. The contribution of this paper is largely pedagogic and methodological. I show how the tools and approach pioneered by Jones can be generalized via the use of duality, complementarity and the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker theorem into a global, quantitative analysis of large changes in high‐dimensional models which also allows for regime changes and corner solutions. I then show how the resulting nonlinear complementarity problem directly translates into a numerical model using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).     

全域旅游示范区空间分布特征及影响因素分析

［目的］全域旅游示范区的确立为旅游业增添了新的旅游吸引模式，成为新时期我国旅游产业转型升级的重要途径之一。［方法］文章利用ArcGIS102，运用最邻近距离法、不均衡指数、核密度分析、等方法，对标记在地图上的500个全域旅游示范区的空间分布特征进行分析，并探究其空间分布差异的影响因素。［结果］（1）示范区空间分布不均衡，呈典型的聚集型分布，从区域角度来看，西部地区示范区数量多于东部地区，中部地区相对较少，与传统认知上的示范区分布格局存在一定错位； （2）示范区空间分布密度存在明显差异，其中江浙皖、湘赣交界、晋豫交界、陕渝交界等地区示范区聚集最多，形成显著的高密度区； （3）示范区规模度差距较大，上海、北京、江苏、天津等省市规模度较大，其他省市规模度较小； （4）示范区空间分布受到资源禀赋、区位交通、社会经济、政策环境等因素影响较大，呈现“傍景”“环路”的分布格局。［结论］全域旅游示范区空间分布不均衡，各省市既要挖掘自身核心竞争力，也要加强区域协调发展，突出示范区模范带头作用，达到辐射周边市县的效果，实现全域旅游资源优化配置。     

数字贸易政策国际比较、发展趋势及启示

随着信息通讯技术的发展,数字贸易作为一种新兴的国际贸易形式得以快速发展,在拓展国际贸易范围和边界的同时,也对全球贸易规则提出新的挑战。本文在分析全球数字贸易发展现状的基础上,重点梳理了美国、欧盟、日本等国家数字贸易政策发展脉络,以及数字贸易的未来发展趋势。然后,本文从中小企业的发展、平台企业的作用、数字贸易规则制定等方面提出对中国数字贸易发展的启示。本文认为,中国作为极具潜力的数字贸易大国,在数字经济发展的驱动下参与并推动建设国际数字贸易治理体系势在必行。     

人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

外资企业的要素属权结构与出口增加值的收益归属

在生产全球化的时代大背景下,外资企业积极参与一国的生产和出口,并从所在国的出口中获取收益。外资企业的出口增加值中既包括了本国要素所产生的增加值,也包括了外国要素所产生的增加值,形成了外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构。研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构,一方面,有助于学术界理解外国要素流入对于本国要素出口增加值的拉动效应;另一方面,有利于学术界厘清外国要素流入所形成的要素收益分配效应。本文运用微观企业数据测算发现:2000—2013年在外资加工出口企业中,中国属权要素出口增加值占属地出口增加值的平均比重为65.85%,两者之间的平均背离程度为34.15%。本文进一步运用区分异质性企业的投入产出表进行测算发现:2012年在外资加工贸易企业和非加工贸易企业出口中,中国属权要素出口增加值与属地要素出口增加值的背离相对值分别为30.13%和25.32%。本文认为属地出口增加值已经不能充分反映外资企业出口中的本国要素收益,研究外资企业出口增加值中的要素属权结构有利于学术界认识增加值贸易中国内要素的实际收益,也可以为一国政府的对外贸易谈判提供科学依据。